While I was writing my previous article, about the dissolution of the artificial state of Ukraine, events started happening which made clear where the conflict is going. I have also read and heard some discussion of these events which are worth commenting about. This is worth a follow-on to that blog.
The Ukrainian “counterattack” against the Russians has finally begun. Some speculated this would never happen. It was clear the Ukrainian army would be slaughtered.
So the Ukrainians finally gave into all the pressure from the west to show some results for all the money being spent on them. The result is that the slaughter is now on. The body count as of this writing is about 4000 dead Ukrainians against 72 dead Russians and for this Ukraine has made no progress against the Russian defence lines.
The main thing the Ukies accomplished was to blow up a dam and flood a large area on the Russian side. It was long predicted they would try this at some point. It will not effect the outcome but it will wreck irrigation downstream all the way to Crimea. It will complicate cooling the reactor cores at the Zaporoznia nuclear plant.
The Ukies also blew up a shut down ammonia pipeline which passes their territory. Ammonia is a chemical precursor to making fertilizers and is very poisonous. There was no point to this other than to further the Ukronazis credentials as absolute shits. They poisoned and perhaps killed some of their own soldiers, and likely civilians, who were in the way.
The Russians have been happy to show us clips of the advanced tanks the European Union had supplied to the Ukrainians, sitting on the wide open steppe burning. So far, most of the Ukrainian army has kept attacking. The Eurocracy is showing no self reflection at all, so far.
Yet it is now very clear how the war will go. Ukraine cannot drive back the Russians. They can withdraw slowly, using cities as fortresses, and try to inflict casualties on the Russians. The EU and USA are running out of equipment and ammunition to send them.
Another interesting aspect is that the better trained units of the Ukraine army increasingly refuse to engage in suicide attacks. Their officers are leading this. This suggests the possibility of the best possible outcome to this war; the Ukrainian army rebelling and overthrowing the Nazi regime.
This would be very hard to achieve in practice. Tyrannical regimes in recent times have learned many techniques for keeping their armies under control. They can isolate and suppress revolts unless their logistical and control systems break down totally.
Because the Russian manpower is limited, it will take them a long time to finish this. Their goal remains constant; Russian speaking areas back into Russia, the Galician areas denazified and demilitarized. These are just, reasonable, achievable goals.
The Russian focus is on minimizing casualties, economy of force, and minimal harm to civilians and infrastructure. The Russian unemployment rate is very low. Their economy is booming. They do not want the war to slow their economy.
This aspect to Russian thinking is explained very well in the best blog on the war, Black Mountain. Another good, concise, ‘right to the point’ source of information is South Front. A very good source on the Russian view of events is Awful Avalanche.
So there are enough sources of information on the war from the “other side”. There is no need to rely on establishment media in the west for information about the conflict. I have always been disturbed that people take seriously all that obvious twaddle, though gradually more people are wising up.
I also pay attention to Chinese media. The official media is right down the middle about the Ukraine conflict. Chinese officials are very neutral in their utterances, though they must know that if Russia goes down, they are next.
It is hard to know what the Chinese leaders really think about the conflict, though some hints leak out. I recently read about some leaked documents relating to a Chinese military study of the conflict.
The Chinese had seemed to think the Russians are the world’s great experts on war. However, it seems at least some Chinese generals are disappointed by Russian handling of the conflict. They think the Russians should have gone in hard and fast from the first days of the conflict.
This contradicts Black Mountain’s view of it. The Russians were not prepared for that kind of war at the start. They thought it would be like the Syrian war, and they would force the enemy to negotiate.
As well, Chinese economic managers are concerned about the consequences of a prolonged conflict. The war is creating global depression, and disruption of energy and food markets. The Chinese are very dependant on international trade.
The Russians, however, are economically very self sufficient. Sanctions against them have actually benefited their domestic industries. And of course, it is their war. No one is in the ring with them.
The best media about the Ukraine war which I have seen lately was from The Duran. In this Mercouris and friends interviewed Clare Daly, a controversial member of the European parliament from Ireland. Her fierce orations against the misdeeds of the Eurocracy are making her an internet celebrity.
It was a very informative discussion. She has a keen understanding of the failings of the European Union. Neoliberal economic theories and a hostility to democracy were built into the EU from the start. The European Parliament has limited real power.
Ireland is somewhat protected from the destructive influences of the EU by a unique feature in its constitution; at least according to Clare. All international treaties, as well as withdrawal from them, must be approved by a referendum. The Irish public is overwhelmingly in favour of a cease fire and negotiations in Ukraine.
This frustrates the Irish establishment, which is anxious to be seen as being as anti Russia as the rest of Europe. The Sin Fein party, which Clare thinks will be in power soon, had been in favour of maintaining Ireland’s traditional neutrality. Now it seems to be posing as ‘middle of the road’ between neutrality and joining the war.
Elsewhere in Europe, the publics are now also turning against the EU and the pointless fight with Russia. It is starting to cause them serious economic misery. The governments keep right on going, with a partial exception of France.
Clarity Clare thinks Europe under the EU is washed up. It is the only part of the world still following the lead of the United States. The rest of the world is moving away from it.
She is especially impressed by Africa, after making a few trips there recently. African nations now have young, well educated populations, poised for greater things. Chinese investment and technical support is helping them to break away from colonialism.
Africans are great fans of Russia and its war in Ukraine. They really love to see the old colonial powers getting beaten.
This was a very informative interview but the best part was Clare’s account of her interactions with the biggest drivers of conflict with Russia, the super nationalists of Poland and the Baltic states. These people make it possible and do a lot to shape it and to create justification for it. These countries are likely to be the next attack line when Russia has finished chewing through Ukraine.
These kinds of nationalists run the absurd line that Russia must be broken up so it does not threaten its neighbours. People who disagree with this do not understand what it is like to live next to a big and aggressive neighbour.
Ireland, says Clare, suffered horribly for many centuries from its close proximity to a large and aggressive neighbour. But once Britain left them alone, they forgot about it and got on with building a better life for themselves. They are not constantly whining that the world has to help them to attack and break up Britain. They maintain normal relations with it.
Two things are becoming very clear about how the Ukraine war will end. One is that it will be with the collapse of the European Union. The other is that this collapse is coming on fairly soon, and is greatly accelerated by the failure of the Atlanticist attack on Russia.
However, ‘soon’ still means a few years, so we will continue to be flooded with ‘war porn’ from Eastern Europe for awhile yet.
Meanwhile; Erin go Bragh.
Russia, whatever its failings, has always been a center of resistance to western imperialism. That is something very important.
I agree with much that you say or imply. NATO disgusts me in the same way the Democratic party does, which puts them considerably above the press and the Republican Party. So though you and I have differences, I had no problem listening openly to your arguments, until you said "The Russian focus is on minimizing casualties, economy of force, and minimal harm to civilians and infrastructure."
And you call others naive? Where do you get your stuff, except from Russian blogs?