It is time to blog again about the number one source of war porn right now. There is plenty of other trouble going on in the world. Some people whine that not enough attention is being paid to the travails of the Palestinians, Yemenis, and Ethiopians right now.
However, none of these conflicts are a serious danger of blowing up into a world war and possible nuclear war. Ukraine is where the world’s two big rivals, containing the biggest nuclear arsenals, are fighting for dominance. That is, the failing power of the Atlanticist empire versus the rising power of the Eurasian Alliance.
I have blogged enough over the past year about the Ukraine war, and about the near total divergence from what is reported in western media and what is really going on. I have been somewhat effected by the campaign to drive the truth off the internet, but I seem to be too small a player to focus much energy on. I have been snarked at by some people with the “Blue on Yellow” in their Twitter handles.
Yet my writings have been praised by some followers of the Ukraine conflict. Better yet, they have been read by a few people. A few of my pieces got a large number of reads. That has encouraged me to keep blogging, although I do not want to write just about Ukraine.
If you really need to get up to speed on my views of the conflict and find my best read work over the past year, go here, here , and here. Also read my trilogy on the experiences of the Donbass people, here. I say that there could not be a clearer conflict of good against evil.
So far the war has been fairly simple. The Ukraine Nazis have flatly refused to negotiate, and have kept on attacking with their inadequate forces, using up their manpower and material. The Russians have mostly just let them exhaust themselves. The Ukronazis have kept up a horrendous bombardment of Donbass, which the Russians have been unable to stop.
This is of course a proxy war of NATO against Russia. On the ground Russia is totally winning. It is also winning the economic war that was launched against it under the pretext of its Ukraine operation. NATO and the west are even losing the propaganda war outside of its home territory; most of the world is rooting for Russia.
Only in recent months Russia has finally started mobilizing and preparing to go to war seriously. It has allowed referenda in the Russian speaking territories freed of UkroNazi rule. These voters overwhelmingly approved their provinces being taken into Russia proper and this has been done, even though large parts of these territories are still under Nazi rule.
There is great speculation about what will happen in the new year. The war groupies of the Russian side assume or hope that the new forces Russia is mobilizing and training will roll into Ukraine during the winter and end the Ukraine regime. The Russian command may have different plans.
The force Russia is preparing may not be intended mainly for the Ukraine army, or what is left of it. There are many other problems Russian might encounter on its way to “cleaning up the mess” in Ukraine. The NATO west claims that its goal is to weaken and exhaust Russia, which means; make as much trouble as possible.
NATO has not done such a great job of weakening Russia. Its position is stronger, while the war is proving a disaster for NATO Europe. Of course, behind all this ado is the American agenda of wrecking Europe and moving its industrial base to North America.
There are many ways by which NATO could cause trouble for Russia in Europe. They seem to be putting the Kosovo situation into play. New attacks on the Kosovo Serbs could lead to new war with Serbia.
Serbia could be emboldened by the success of Russia and the obvious weakness of NATO. However, they are still surrounded by NATO. Yet that situation may not last much longer.
NATO could cause a lot of trouble in Moldova. That is a complicated situation. Romanian nationalists think Moldovans are really Romanians who migrated into Russia, and should rejoin Romania and take their piece of the steppe with them.
The Moldovans seem ambivalent to becoming Romanians again. However, there is a large Russian minority in that country which would like to be back under a Russian government. There is a breakaway Russian speaking enclave called Transdinistria which has been protected by a small contingent of Russian soldiers.
This situation has persisted since the ethnic conflicts in the turbulent period after the Soviet breakup. One wonders why the Ukronazis have yet to try marching into Transdinistria. It is still separated from Russia by hundreds of miles of Ukraine.
In the Baltic, there is the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. It is hemmed in by the Baltic Sea and by two states with an unreasoned and historic animosity to Russia; Poland and Lithuania. The only road route to Russia goes through Lithuania, which is obligated by the treaty which wound up the Soviet Union to allow passage through its territory.
Lithuania has been part of NATO for some time, which means its government has been captured by Atlanticist stooges. We know how much regard such people have for treaties. Harassment of Russian truckers moving through Lithuania seems for now to have been effectively discouraged.
Poland is one of the few NATO countries with much of an army. It has been training troops as well, but has some trouble equipping them. They sent most of their old Soviet era equipment to the Ukrainians on the assumption that NATO would give them more modern weapons.
Even the Poles are starting to realize that this was not a good deal. Western military equipment is showing to be much inferior to modern Russian gear. Western industries are set up to produce only limited quantities and would take a long time to ramp up output. It would take a long time to train Polish and other troops to use them.
However, the Poles may have a different idea. They really do not like Germans, Lithuanians, or the Galician speakers of Western Ukraine. This has to do with some of the most atrocious events of the latest world war, in which these countries tried to exterminate Polish populations in order to create ethically pure areas on their lands.
Since the Polish state has run into economic difficulties, it has been demanding reparations payments from Germany. Many nationalistic Polish politicians have the idea that Poland should take back the Galician part of Ukraine.
The Ukronazi, Russian hating mentality is mainly a Galician, North West Ukraine thing. The Russians of South east Ukraine want to rejoin Russia and obviously reject this. That is what the fighting is about.
The Russian state may decide to go along with Poland taking Galicia after it has liberated the Russian speaking population. The Russian leadership seems to have finally dropped the sentimental idea of Galicians held over from Soviet times. They may have started out from the same place as the Russians, but the Galicians have developed in a different way, into a different people.
It would be futile to try to reintegrate Galicia into the Russosphere. It would be cunning and cynical to allow the Poles to take on the task of subduing the toxic Galician nationalism. However, the Russians will have a big enough rebuilding job in former Ukraine when this is over, and could do without Galicia.
There are many marbles in play in Eastern Europe. Things will get a lot more interesting and dangerous in the year 2023. One safe prediction is that the present Ukrainian state will not exist by year’s end.
When Russians wage wars, they tend to use exhaustion strategies. The NATO aim in the war is to “weaken” Russia, meaning to wear it down. That is why they do everything to keep Ukraine fighting; to create as much damage as possible that Russia will have to repair.
However, the present day Atlanticist power is showing to be not a very good war fighter. Their strategies of economic war have mostly harmed themselves and benefited Russia. They are already out of ideas, even more than they are out of ammunition.
The Ukraine war is a war of exhaustion. Ukraine is now pretty much exhausted. The Russians have barely started and will clearly outlast the Atlanticist powers.
There is one question people keep asking as they start to get outside western propaganda bubbles and try to understand what is going on. What is the cause of so much animosity toward the Russians? Many find it odd that the Russians do not hate back.
This is not a hard question for those with an adequate knowledge of history and geopolitics. There is imperialism. The western countries are the home of imperialism.
Imperialism cannot tolerate any areas which are outside its control or at least cannot be kept isolated. Russia cannot be easily controlled or isolated. Russia is a threat to imperialism.
But western imperialism is now failing. It no longer controls anything outside its core territories. If it does not decide to go out with a nuclear bang, it will melt away over the rest of this decade.
These are the main elements in the Ukraine cum NATO war. It is foolish to try to predict with any precision just how these elements will play out over the next year, never mind the next decade. But 2023 will be one of the more decisive years in history.
As the old Chinese philosopher said, long ago; may you live in interesting times.