Trump Trumped in Ukraine
Wars can begin when you will, but will not end when you choose.
It seems that when I put “Trump” in the title of one of my posts, it gets more reads. This is easy to do. Trump is creating much of the news which is worth blogging about.
Everything Trump is doing is turning into a disaster. He is not going to win a trade war with anybody, even Canada. He is not going to bring a stop to the Gaza conflict. He is definitely not going to bring the Ukraine war to a halt.
He wants the trouble in Ukraine and the Middle East to stop so he can focus on China. He thinks that is America’s main enemy. He wants to force conditions on China that he thinks will prevent them from making American industry uncompetitive.
China is not making American industry uncompetitive. America is making American industry uncompetitive. Until America adopts a completely new economic system and form of government, it will remain uncompetitive.
Like the rest of the American elite, he thinks he can start and stop wars at will. A certain political theorist long ago had an axiom against that idea. It is translated something like; “a war may begin when you will, but will not end when you choose”.
Another American president decided to start the Ukraine war. I do not mean Biden in 2022. I mean Obama, back in 2014.
If you still need a brief history lesson about the Ukraine war, you will find it below. The worst thing about hearing any discussion about this war is that most people still take official propaganda as gospel. They have no clue what they are talking about.
But Trump thinks he can stop the war just because he wants to. In this he is like most “conflict resolution” practitioners around. Unlike him, these people are usually pacifistic. All war is evil and stopping it is an end in itself.
No one ever resolved a ‘conflict’. Conflicts resolve themselves. ‘Conflict’ is pacifist political theorist’s jargon or euphemism for ‘war’.
Wars will go until they play themselves out. This is when one side cannot continue. But this is usually only a truce before the next war.
Most wars are battles within a larger war, which might go on for generations. A war or complex of wars ends when the underlying cause of the war is eliminated.
Wars are caused by psychopaths having gained power. It is very hard to keep psychopaths out of power. It is harder to eliminate them. More on this below.
Trump is not a psychopath. He is an extreme narcissist. So is Zelinsky. So are most of the doofuses running the European Union. The psychopaths in this are slightly hidden.
Putin is rational. His problem has been that he is slightly pacifistic and legalistic. It took him a long time to realize his mistake.
Out of these elements, only Trump does not want the war to continue.
Putin will continue the war because he and the people around him have finally learned another principle of that old political theorist. That is, trying to avoid war when a war is inevitable simply delays the inevitable. You then have to fight a much harder war at a greater disadvantage.
Putin and mother Russia are going to finish the job. Her aim is to eliminate the nazi regime in Ukraine, make sure Ukraine never threatens Russia again, and to protect the rights of Russian speaking people and the Orthodox Church. Any kind of truce will simply give the NATO Nazis time to rearm and try again.
The Ukronazis behind Zelinsky will not allow the war to stop. If Zelinsky falls, one of them, likely even more extreme than he, will take power and continue the war. Anyone in Ukraine trying to negotiate a permanent peace will be killed by these Banderite Ultra Nazis.
These people have developed a military death cult. They will fight Russia until it occupies every inch of Ukraine. Then, like the Banderites of 1945, they will go into exile and serve as thugs for oligarchy in whatever country they land in.
The black aristocracy behind the European Union will not allow the war to end. The fact they cannot win it is irrelevant to them. The point is to keep conflict going.
Their problem with Russia is that it is fundamentally European but outside their system of control. These people have used NATO and the EU to regain the power they think they are entitled to. These people have, or believe they have, been controlling European civilization for centuries.
Behind Trump is the dear old American military Industrial complex. Ukraine has been almost the perfect war for them. They can send the money and weapons out with no accounting, and get a cut of it back through the illegal arms trade.
A war with China would not be as lucrative. The money and weapons would not disappear into a racketeer state, but would be directly accounted for by the American military. Such a war would likely also be fairly short.
Trump could stop sending money and weapons to Ukraine, but the MIC would not like that. The Ukrainians might shift to the guerrilla style of war which went on in west Ukraine for a decade after the world war. The Europeans will keep supporting them and sending what they can.
The Eurocrats are reckless enough that they could send their own troops into Ukraine, inviting a very destructive response from Russia. Even if the Eurocracy brought it on their home countries, the Americans would not want them to collapse. Trump may be inclined to let them go, but large parts of the American establishment would be unable to allow it.
Thus it is seen, that the war in Ukraine is locked in for the duration, and Trump can do nothing about it.
The biggest problem with discussing Ukraine is that the western establishment propaganda narrative about it still prevails. Russia is still “bad guyed” about it. I do not want to get into repeating the historical facts over and over.
To make it as succinct as possible; Ukraine is a NATO proxy state run by Nazis as a weapon against Russia. I mean literal Nazis; people who see themselves as successors to the Banderite maniacs of world war two. These were people who even frightened the German Nazis; who wanted to exterminate every other ethnic group around them to create a pure Galician homeland.
This ideology was reintroduced into Ukraine after the fall of the Soviet Union, with the help of western intelligence and NGOs. Such people were put into power by a coup in 2014, engineered by the Americans. The Russian speaking population of the south east of Ukraine rebelled and drove the Banderas out of their communities.
The story of the Donbass revolt is an amazing one. The citizens of these provinces organized their own government and defense militia on the fly. The Russian government at the time offered them no support; in fact hindered them.
The Kiev coup regime discovered it had no effective military forces. Had the Donbass militias received proper support from Russia, they could have taken Kiev. Instead, the Ukronazis were given a cease fire within which to rearm and prepare themselves.
Then they attacked Donbass again. The Republics were able to hold them off again. They started to get some help from Russia.
Public opinion in Russia became enraged by Putin’s failure to end the Ukraine war at that time. The big problem was the dislike of Putin, and the people around him, for nationalism, and for spontaneous popular initiatives. They are very legalistic and focused on process, and on diplomatic solutions.
The Donbass republics began winning again. The Ukronazis again called for a truce. This time the terms of the “Minsk 2” truce agreement included a clause that if Donbass were attacked again, Russia had the right to intervene directly.
The Ukronazis never respected the truce. They continued to raid and shell the Donbass cities. They assassinated the Republic’s leaders.
After being rearmed and retrained by the west, they began another attack on Donbass in 2023. The Ukronazis and the NATO bureaucracy behind them knew that this would start a war. The Banderite militias were openly calling for a genocide of the Donbass population.
At this point, any Russian government which failed to protect Donbass would have been immediately removed from power, and probably charged with treason. Russia cited the above mentioned clause, and rolled into Ukraine.
But they only went a little way in. The Russian aim was still to force Kiev to negotiate seriously. A treaty was agreed to.
The British prime minister famously flew into Kiev and ordered the government to scrap it. The people who had negotiated on the Kiev government side were mostly killed by the boys with the Nazi tattoos.
After a ceasefire, which allowed the Ukronazi army to again rearm, they began the war again. At this point, the Russians gave up on diplomacy and mobilized for a serious war. They planned a long war of attrition.
The Putin government has been harshly criticized in Russia for failing to intervene in Ukraine in 2014. The coup should have been halted, the elected government restored, and the Ukronazis chased down and killed.
Putin has recently been very apologetic about this. He has promised there will be never again be a ceasefire until Russian conditions are met; Ukraine demilitarized and deNazified, and the rights of Russian speakers protected. It is now accepted that the west is, in the Russian term; “agreement noncapable”.
In other words, there is no point in dealing with someone who simply does not keep their agreements. This can be a very hard and costly lesson to learn, for people with a legalistic way of thinking.
The Ukraine conflict is going toward Russian victory. The western hegemony believed the expense of the war, and the sanctions they could throw on Russia, would break her. They completely underestimated Russia, and overestimated their own power.
The Russians have woken up to the danger before them. The sanctions strengthened their economy, boosting domestic production. Russia is now much stronger than at the start of the war. The west is much weaker.
This is the first major war in many years. It has shown how wars in these times are fought. Present technology makes attack very difficult.
Drones are very effective weapons. However, autonomous drones are easily bamboozled. The soldier’s best defense against low flying drones is a shotgun.
The Russians are succeeding by adopting an attrition strategy. Ukraine has been ground down. Much of the military aid sent to it by the west is lost due to the extreme corruption in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army’s one big advantage was the highly advanced aerial and satellite reconnaissance provided by the Americans. This made it hard for the Russian army to protect its command and logistic structure, slowing them down. Trump has cut that off and it cannot be fully replaced by European systems.
To briefly reiterate; the second Trump administration has lead to a break in the western hegemony. The “America first” people behind Trump do not want the Ukraine war. They see China as the big enemy and want to focus there.
The Globalist faction is now centered in Europe. The European elite are obsessed with Russia. They cannot believe they are losing to it.
They are acting very recklessly to try to keep the Americans in this fight. They may try to send their own troops into Ukraine, gambling that Russia will not dare attack them. If they were defeated, that would force the Americans back in because they cannot risk having Europe collapse.
Of course, this situation suits China well. They are happy to keep the west exhausting itself pounding away at Russia, while they prepare. They know they will likely face a military conflict with the American sometime before 2030.
That is, unless the Americans collapse first.
So, again, there is little chance the Ukraine war will end soon. The conflict is locked in until the European elite and the Ukronazis can no longer fight it. That will require the complete occupation of Ukraine.
This will be a difficult task for Russia, requiring several years yet. It will eventually get down to guerrilla style fighting. The Globalists are deeply invested in this war and will do anything to keep it going in some form.
Eventually, most of Ukraine will be absorbed back into Russia. A majority of Ukrainians are Russian speaking. Some are brainwashed to think Ukrainian means Galician, and they are that kind of Ukrainian.
The source of the really fanatic Ukraine nationalism is in the Galician speaking north west of the country. Galicians are one of these ethnicities with a tendency to toxic nationalism. There is much discussion in Russia about what to do about these people.
It is likely that the Ukraine war will not really end until the European Union, and the maniac elite behind it, collapses. There are reasons why these people see the fight with Russia as existential. If they are forced to allow the Russians in, their system starts to collapse.
Their system of control is dependent on maintaining a balance of powers. No one continental power can become too powerful. Russia is very powerful.
The European powers tolerated the British empire for a long time because it was slightly remote from Europe, but in line with its basic values. It could act to balance the competing powers. They have accepted the Americans because it overpowered them, but also followed their basic values, and yet was slightly distant.
Trump’s America does not want to play that role anymore. The Eurocracy is lost. If they let the Russians integrate economically into Europe, it will begin to set the rules. Their hegemony will be over.
The only real solution for this mess seems to be, for it all to collapse and a new order rise from it. Russia will likely become the leader of Europe. In the end, this would lead to a revival of Europe.
Europe after the European Union is a subject which could be developed in a subsequent blog.
There are a few other notes which could be made about the posturing and role playing of Trump and the other players in this. Much has been made of the nonsense in the oval office of the White House, between Trump and Vance on one side, and Zelinsky on the other. Who won depends mostly on what side you are already on.
Trump put this insolent and ungrateful client ruler into his place. Zelinsky stood up to Trump’s bullying and defended Ukraine’s rights. None of this changes anything.
Trump wants a deal with Zelinsky in which some minerals are signed over to the Americans in order to pay for all the assistance. This vast trove of minerals does not seem to exist. Whatever real natural resources Ukraine has are under Russian control, or soon will be.
This is posturing by Trump. He has to create an impression he is protecting American interests, as defined by the MAGA movement.
Trump also needs to get the USA out of Ukraine without it looking like another American defeat. He needs to get some kind of symbolic concession from Russia. It will be interesting to see how well he succeeds at that.
But the stupidest thing I read about Trump, Ukraine, and Russia the idea that Trump is a Russian agent. It seems the KGB, in 1987 in Soviet times, cast some hypnotic spell on Trump. It is one of these claims which come up again and again, but dissolve whenever serious investigators look into it.
It is never explained what Trump has been doing in forty years, which benefited the USSR or the Russian federation. If there is anything sure about Trump, it is that he is solely focused on his own interests.
Regardless of any deals Trump makes, the Grim Reaper will have plenty of business in Ukraine for years to come.
That's the way to conduct foreign policy.
Yes. It will go on for a long time yet.